Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 34.449802 37.242387 40.282458 43.861418 47.990720 52.644415 58.342304
2025-04-13 29.580994 33.161924 37.308884 42.544646 49.097264 57.199641 68.272614
2025-04-20 27.677843 31.870954 36.958734 43.747445 52.839622 65.047333 83.589254
2025-04-27 26.238898 30.844276 36.640486 44.730318 56.208352 72.803935 100.725828
2025-05-04 24.893036 29.737427 36.013542 45.100405 58.637922 79.542606 118.319781
2025-05-11 23.504834 28.423270 34.937957 44.645039 59.687858 84.240681 133.959215
2025-05-18 22.219645 27.131536 33.754493 43.858022 60.042692 87.766186 148.644042
2025-05-25 21.078515 25.948283 32.613773 42.989251 60.098295 90.710959 163.334268
2025-06-01 20.126626 24.960675 31.668979 42.308625 60.341912 94.010904 180.506835
2025-06-08 19.154128 23.887004 30.523475 41.200863 59.688208 95.395414 193.461001
2025-06-15 18.936356 23.860034 30.899180 42.535516 63.532061 106.935867 244.570445
2025-06-22 18.365530 23.292031 30.422683 42.418742 64.664095 112.851365 283.082860
2025-06-29 17.707239 22.581991 29.712628 41.892017 65.027502 117.316465 322.601161
2025-07-06 16.920772 21.651836 28.617012 40.625369 63.780949 117.553603 344.348587
2025-07-13 16.739206 21.602860 28.881512 41.735439 67.516245 131.953229 468.728130
2025-07-20 16.522906 21.487805 29.029061 42.644581 70.987370 147.193859 658.677042
2025-07-27 16.203493 21.199453 28.877254 42.986779 73.265650 159.935875 911.103063
2025-08-03 15.755434 20.694424 28.343273 42.565646 73.720515 166.892659 1163.738114
2025-08-10 15.277001 20.124484 27.674618 41.837308 73.348077 170.850421 1430.015874
2025-08-17 14.812355 19.560103 26.990510 41.032582 72.693175 173.616660 1745.237167
2025-08-24 14.405655 19.072821 26.414858 40.401592 72.397276 177.819435 2267.726257
2025-08-31 13.948243 18.492501 25.660541 39.373592 70.985182 177.019416 2617.570270
2025-09-07 13.915445 18.577719 26.034029 40.611989 75.595703 204.916235 10953.830822